When do I use 可能 vs 会 to express probability?

Use 可能 when you want to say something is possible but not certain, like a guess ('可能吧 maybe'). Use 会 when you are making a prediction based on evidence or expectation ('明天会晴' It will be sunny). If you want to be cautious but still lean toward likelihood, combine them: 可能会.

Can 可能 and 会 both be used with '不' to negate likelihood?

Yes, but with different meanings. 不可能 means 'impossible' (zero chance), while 不会 means 'unlikely' or 'won't happen' (very low probability). For example: '她不可能迟到' = She absolutely cannot be late; '她不会迟到' = She probably won't be late.

Does 会 always indicate the future?

Not exactly. 会 can refer to a future prediction ('他会来' He will come) or a general tendency ('夏天会很热' Summers are usually hot). But it does not express immediate intention or plan (for that, use 要 or the 了 construction).

Is there a difference between '可能' and '也许'?

可能 and 也许 are very similar in expressing 'maybe/perhaps', but 可能 can also be a noun ('可能性') and is slightly more formal in writing. 也许 is more colloquial and often used in casual speech. For forecasting, 可能 pairs naturally with 会 (可能会), whereas 也许会 is also common.

Easily confusedHSK 3

可能 (kěnéng) vs 会 (huì): possibility and prediction

可能 (kěnéng) expresses possibility or uncertainty ('may/possibly'), while 会 (huì) indicates a strong likelihood or prediction ('will/likely'). The two can be combined as 可能会 to mean 'likely' or 'probably'. Choose 可能 when emphasizing doubt or a non-committal chance; choose 会 when making a confident forecast based on expected events.

Both 可能 (kěnéng) and 会 (huì) can express degrees of likelihood, but they differ in strength and nuance. 可能 is neutral about probability—it simply says something is possible without committing to a high chance. 会, on the other hand, asserts a strong expectation or prediction, often based on known facts or patterns. Because of this, 可能 often pairs with uncertainty (e.g., 可能吧 'maybe'), while 会 feels more definitive. They frequently appear together as 可能会, which softens a prediction into a likely scenario.

使い分け

可能kě néng

may, possibly

Use 可能 to express that something is possible or might happen, without implying a high probability. It is appropriate for uncertain or hypothetical situations, and often appears in questions, guesses, or cautious statements. It can also be used as a noun (可能性) or adjective (可能的).

可能 can be placed before the verb or at the beginning of a clause, and it always conveys doubt or speculation unless reinforced by other words (like 一定). In speech, 可能吧 is a common hedging expression.

会huì

will, likely

Use 会 to make a prediction about the future or to state a strong likelihood based on evidence, logic, or typical expectations. It implies that the speaker believes the event will happen (not just that it could). 会 is also used for willingness (as in 'I'll do it') and natural tendencies.

会 often carries a sense of certainty or high expectation, but it can be softened by adverbs like 很可能 or 大概. In negative form (不会), it denies likelihood ('won't happen'). The same character 会 also means 'can (a learned skill)', a different usage not related to probability.

ひと目で分かる

	可能	会
Degree of certainty	Low to moderate (just possible)	High (expected or predicted)
Typical translation	may, might, possibly	will, likely, be going to
Negation	不可能 (impossible)	不会 (won't, unlikely)
Combination with each other	—	可能会 (might / probably)
Use with 吧	Common (可能吧 'maybe so')	Less common; sounds uncertain
Forms a noun (可能性)	Yes (可能性 'possibility')	No

例文

可能
明天可能下雨。
Míng tiān kě néng xià yǔ.
It might rain tomorrow.
Expresses uncertainty about rain; 会 would sound more certain.
会
明天会下雨。
Míng tiān huì xià yǔ.
It will rain tomorrow.
Stronger prediction, implying confidence in the forecast.
会
他可能会来。
Tā kě néng huì lái.
He will likely come. / He might come.
可能 softens the prediction of 会; combined form avoids either extreme.
可能
我不可能去。
Wǒ bù kě néng qù.
It's impossible for me to go.
Negation of 可能 means impossibility.
会
他不会同意。
Tā bú huì tóng yì.
He won't agree. / It's unlikely he will agree.
不会 denies the likelihood; 不可能 would mean 'it's impossible that he agrees'.

よくある間違い

Using 会 for purely speculative or low‑probability situations: '他可能会来' is correct, but just '他会来' implies strong confidence (he will come).
Using 可能 in strong predictions where 会 is natural: '明天可能下雪' is okay for uncertainty, but if the forecast is sure, say '明天会下雪'.
Confusing the 'can (skill)' sense of 会 with the 'will' sense: '我会说中文' means 'I can speak Chinese', not 'I will speak Chinese'.
Omitting 会 in 可能会: learners sometimes write '可能去' when they mean 'will likely go' – add 会 for the prediction nuance.
Using 可能 as an adverb before an adjective without a verb: '可能忙' is okay but sounds odd; better to say '可能很忙' (might be busy).

よくある質問

When do I use 可能 vs 会 to express probability?: Use 可能 when you want to say something is possible but not certain, like a guess ('可能吧 maybe'). Use 会 when you are making a prediction based on evidence or expectation ('明天会晴' It will be sunny). If you want to be cautious but still lean toward likelihood, combine them: 可能会.
Can 可能 and 会 both be used with '不' to negate likelihood?: Yes, but with different meanings. 不可能 means 'impossible' (zero chance), while 不会 means 'unlikely' or 'won't happen' (very low probability). For example: '她不可能迟到' = She absolutely cannot be late; '她不会迟到' = She probably won't be late.
Does 会 always indicate the future?: Not exactly. 会 can refer to a future prediction ('他会来' He will come) or a general tendency ('夏天会很热' Summers are usually hot). But it does not express immediate intention or plan (for that, use 要 or the 了 construction).
Is there a difference between '可能' and '也许'?: 可能 and 也许 are very similar in expressing 'maybe/perhaps', but 可能 can also be a noun ('可能性') and is slightly more formal in writing. 也许 is more colloquial and often used in casual speech. For forecasting, 可能 pairs naturally with 会 (可能会), whereas 也许会 is also common.